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8 HASHALOM August
2016
August 2016
HASHALOM
9
Israel’s Counterterrorism
Lessons for Europe
Long experience with constantly evolving threats offers insight into responding with agility
Like unification on the Korean Peninsula, it may be more realistic to see two states as a long-term
solution.
ISRAEL
ISRAEL
Each summer, I participate in a program that brings academics from the
United States, Europe and Asia to Israel. For many years, the Israeli-
Palestinian conflict was considered the pivot of the entire region.
Conflicting claims to statehood had resulted in four major wars through
1973, and nine other conflicts thereafter: wars in Lebanon, Gaza and
the Palestinian uprisings or intifadahs of the late-1980s and early 2000’s.
Conversely, it was believed that a solution to the Palestinian issue —
through a revival of the Oslo process and reaching a two-state solution
—would dampen conflict not only in Israel and Palestine but in the region
more generally. Although radicalism had many local causes, injustices
against Palestinians were a regional rallying point against not only Israel
but the United States.
It is doubtful that this view of the Middle East was ever right, but three
tectonic changes in the last 10 years have fundamentally altered the face
of the region. The most recent change was the Arab Spring, a series of
uprisings that mostly challenged authoritarian Sunni regimes: in Tunisia,
Egypt, Bahrain and Syria. Although none of these revolutions succeeded
except in Tunisia, even conservative Saudi Arabia is not immune from
democratic pressures. Put differently, these regimes are now concerned
as much about their own populations.
The second development is nothing less than the collapse of the Middle
East state system that dates to the colonial era. Four countries — Iraq,
Libya, Yemen and Syria — are in the throes of outright civil war. National
authority in these states has crumbled, boundaries have become porous
or nonexistent, and local warlords have seized power. The Islamic State
is only the most brutal of these movements.
Throughout these failed states, communities are turning back into
themselves, seeking to provide local order.
Underneath all of these developments lies the great Sunni-Shia divide
that separates Iran and Iraq and outposts or allies like Hezbollah and the
Assad regime in Syria from the mostly conservative Sunni states. The
civil war in Yemen is only one manifestation of this communal struggle, a
proxy war pitting Tehran against Riyadh.
These epochal changes have had unanticipated effects on the Israel-
Palestine conflict. Despite the apparent turmoil in the region, these
developments have actually strengthened Israeli security as its neighbors
are preoccupied with graver threats. The chances of Israel facing political
pressure, let alone invasion, from Egypt, Syria or even Lebanon are
minimal.
The political effects are deeper. Israel shares a surprising number of
common interests with the conservative Sunni states in the region,
including most clearly Egypt and Jordan but even Saudi Arabia as well.
These common interests include controlling domestic opponents such
as the Muslim Brotherhood, terrorism and Iran’s reach across the region.
Conversations in Israel suggest that there is more communication
between Israel and these states than is thought.
Finally, regional developments have not only sidelined the Israel-
Palestinian conflict, but in the process weakened the Palestine Liberation
Organization’s bargaining position as well. Palestinian politics is deeply
divided not only between Fatah — which nominally control the West
Bank — and Hamas, in control of Gaza since 2007. The top leadership
is also isolated from its own citizenry, as elections for a new leadership
have been repeatedly postponed.
In addition, Israeli politics has shifted even further to the right since the
elections of 2015. Despite the closeness of that election, the current
coalition has little appetite for concessions to the Palestinians. Although
Benjamin Netanyahu continues to publicly support a two-state outcome,
the conviction is not there and members of his own cabinet have more
or less openly rejected it.
The Obama administration sought to “pivot” toward Asia, but the Middle
East has not made it easy to do so: Iraq, Iran and its nuclear ambitions,
the Islamic State, the Syrian civil war and Libya have all drawn the United
States back to this troubled region.
It is pretty clear that the U.S. strategy of trying to put “daylight” between
the U.S. administration and Netanyahu government failed, and miserably
so. Indeed, Netanyahu exploited disaffection with the U.S. to his political
advantage. The challenge for a Clinton administration will be to use
her long association with the country to budge the Israeli leadership —
and public — toward taking more calculated risk with respect to the
Palestinians.
But amidst the other challenges in the region and the disappointing
history of shuttle diplomacy, is the outcome likely to be different this
time around? Like unification on the Korean Peninsula, it may be more
realistic to see two states as a long-term solution, and put more effort
into easing the burdens that are placed on the daily life of the Palestinians
from Israeli control. Small measures — including economic ones — may
not have the drama of ceremonies on the White House lawn, but are at
least a start.
*The author is Krause Distinguished Professor at the Graduate School of the
University of California in San Diego.
By: Stephan Haggard- Korea Joongang Daily
Postcard from Israel
After the horror of Nice, Israelis stand in solidarity with the people of
France. When we see children and loved ones mowed down during
an evening of celebration, our hearts break. We pray for the speedy
recovery of the injured and mourn with the families of the victims.
But expressions of sympathy and solidarity aren’t enough. As the terrorist
threat evolves, so, too, must our response. In Nice, the use of a truck as
the murder weapon shows how terrorism is constantly developing new
ways to inflict mass casualties.
Israel has bitter experience of this. The devastation in Nice was on a vast
scale, but the method of attack is painfully familiar. Since October, 44
terrorist attacks have used motor vehicles as a weapon against Israelis.
In recent months, a new generation of terrorists radicalized on social
media has launched more than 300 attacks in Israel using knives, guns
and vehicles. Palestinian social media, and sometimes even official media,
have published a flood of material glorifying the knife and the car as a
weapon. The same is true of the jihadist groups murdering civilians in
France and elsewhere around the world.
No longer do these people need training camps, bomb-making expertise
or even an order. All they need is an Internet connection, incitement and
the desire to kill.
In this digital age, terror cannot be met with an analog response. We
need to keep up, and Israel has experience and expertise to share.
When Palestinian terror groups pioneered plane hijacking, Israel
pioneered rigorous security procedures for our airports and airlines. At
the time, we were accused of undermining freedoms and criminalizing
the innocent. Few would question the need for those procedures today.
When Israel first used drones to target terrorist leaders, we were
accused of “extrajudicial killing.” Today these techniques are widely used
in the fight against Islamic State and al Qaeda.
We’ve also modified our built environment, discreetly but deliberately,
to protect civilian life. When, in 2014, a Palestinian terrorist attempted
to ram his car into Israelis at a bus stop, he was stopped by a concrete
bollard. Getting out of his car, the attacker still managed to kill one victim
using a knife. But the body count could have been far higher.
Other countries now place bollards outside high-profile targets—at
the White House in Washington, Westminster in London and high-risk
embassies in major cities around the world. But when the enemy views
children watching fireworks as a target, we need to adapt again.
Critics complain that such defensive actions compromise civil liberties
and feed an atmosphere of fear. Yet the threat cannot be wished away,
not when the ultimate civil liberty - the right to celebrate Bastille Day,
to attend a rock concert, a nightclub or dine at a restaurant without fear
of death - is under attack. Preserving these freedoms and civil liberties
while responding to terror is a challenge for any country, especially a
democracy.
We need tools to work with greater agility and speed against potential
terrorists. Intelligence agencies must be given greater resources to
identify and interpret the flood of data as quickly and efficiently as they
can. This necessarily involves an element of profiling, building on an
analysis of those most likely to be radicalized. In an age when the Internet
has turned yesterday’s disturbed loner into today’s radicalized sleeper
cell, social-media companies must also take responsibility and play a role.
Beyond protective measures, we need new and innovative frameworks
to work together and present a united front among Muslims, Christians
and Jews. One of the first victims in Nice was a Muslim woman. Islamist
terrorists have even struck Islamic holy sites in Medina, Saudi Arabia.
Muslim, Christian and Jew must be engaged in the defeat of terrorism.
Cooperation already takes place under the radar between Israel, Western
countries and Arab states. In a fight that is as much a war of propaganda
as it is of weapons, the open involvement of Arab and Muslim countries
would send a powerful and timely message.
Finally, the General Assembly of the United Nations should conduct a
special session to bring nations and communities of all faiths together,
openly and honestly, to do what is necessary to defeat this evil. Islamist
terror targets us all, and together we must fight back.
Mr. Prosor is Israel’s former ambassador to the United Nations and the
United Kingdom. He is currently the Aba Eban Chair for International Affairs
at the IDC Hertlzliyah and a distinguished fellow at the Hudson Institute.
By Ron Prosor- Wall Street Journal
People walk past the Tel Aviv city hall, lit up in the colors of the French
national flag to honor the victims of an attack in the southern French city of
Nice, in Rabin Square in Tel Aviv on July 15.